Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
