Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
